WHAT WE THINK1️⃣ A US$1 billion fundraising deal for a defense startup at a time of war  If I put my MBA student hat on, fundraising for a defense startup while the US is at war is just good business strategy. When I put my civilian hat back on, it reads like a dystopian novel. But facts are often stranger than fiction. AI defense startup Shield AI, an autonomous drone and aircraft software developer, raised US$2 billion just a year after it closed US$240 million of funding. The fresh capital brings its valuation to US$12.2 billion. Two days before the US-Israel war on Iran broke, the Canada-based Centre for International Governance Innovation forecasted global military spending on AI to reach US$38.8 billion by 2028. How those numbers have changed after the conflict isn't clear, but if a defense startup can raise this much less than a month after the war started, that's enough reason to believe countries are already ramping up spending. How does this change the investment strategy of Asian-based investors? Last year, I spoke with a VC firm based in East Asia who was very wary of looking like they were investing in defense. The firm was planning to invest in infrastructure startups that may eventually supply defense companies. "I don't want to seem like I'm pro-war," the VC firm's managing partner said at the time. I'm thinking these investors may follow the stance of whatever their governments are taking. The rest of Asia may be on wait-and-see mode, but funds in the Middle East may perhaps have a different tone. 2️⃣ Anthropic is unscathed After a weekslong tit-for-tat between Anthropic and the Trump administration, a US court has decided the government cannot label the company a "supply chain risk." US federal judge Rita Lin wrote that the Pentagon's decision to label Anthropic as such was "likely both contrary to law and arbitrary and capricious." As the Financial Times reported, Judge Lin said: "Nothing in the governing statute supports the Orwellian notion that an American company may be branded a potential adversary and saboteur of the US for expressing disagreement with the government." The Trump administration will likely contest the decision, but this definitely brings some reassurance to tech firms who don't want to go along with the US government's plans. |